![]() Past performance is no guarantee of future results.For general enquires or to provide feedback on our web site please call: The technicians remain pretty bullish on the stock market, while – as evidenced by this blog’s S&P 500 earnings work – the fundamentalists are less optimistic than technicians. Capital markets can change quickly – both for better and worse. The S&P 500 earnings data is courtesy of IBES data by Refinitiv, but the tracking and spreadsheets and calculations and mistakes are all this blog’s. Take all this data and commentary with a healthy dose of skepticism. Seriously, the only data improvement this week was that the expected S&P 500 2023 EPS estimate rose $0.01 sequentially this week from $222.84 last week to $222.85 this week, which was the first sequential improvement in 11 weeks (and only the second sequential improvement since June 24th) and the expected 2024 S&P 500 EPS estimate rose $0.02 to $249.42 from $249.40. Something will have to give at some point: either the S&P 500 will break down or, if the S&P 500 continues to rally, eventually earnings estimates for 2023 will confirm the rally. There is nothing all that riveting or interesting about S&P 500 earnings data. ![]() It’s clear that there is little reason for sell-side analysts to stick their neck and raise estimates, in this environment.Īnd yet the bizarre thing is that – despite expected flat revenue for the S&P 500 in 2023 and currently barely positive S&P 500 EPS growth – the S&P 500’s YTD return as of Thursday night’s, February 16, 2023, close was +6.76%. Q4 ’22 earnings season will end this week, and for the last 6 weeks of the quarter we’ll start to see companies report with quarters ending January and February ’23. Note 2023 revenue by quarter – it looks like 2023 could see flat revenue for the S&P 500. Only Q4 ’23 seems to have withstood the steady and inexorable slide we’ve seen in numbers the last 9 months.Ģ024 does look solid though, but it’s still too early to say or make a reasonable decision about those estimates. It’s pretty grim for the first 2 quarters of 2023, and while there was some hope for Q3 ’23 in late 2022, Q3 ’23 EPS estimates have seen negative revisions. (An earnings preview will be posted to Readers should expand this spreadsheet and look at the bottom-up data for S&P 500 EPS and revenue for each of the 4 quarters of 2023. That stat has only been heard from one analyst though. Some analysts have put Walmart’s grocery percentage as high as 70% of total revenue. Half of their $600 billion in annual revenue is grocery revenue, and while Amazon ( AMZN ) wants to make inroads in this market, everyone else is a distant 2nd. Most people don’t realize that Walmart is the largest grocer in the world. If Walmart can continue to improve their inventory issue, it would go a long way to helping the stock (in my opinion). The Q4 ’22 earnings season ends next week (unofficially speaking) with Walmart ( WMT) reporting their holiday quarter or rather their 4th fiscal quarter of the 2023 fiscal year. The S&P 500 earnings yield was 5.45% this week, versus 5.44% last week and 5.81% to end 2022.The P/E multiple on the forward estimate is 18.3x versus the 17.2x to end 2022. ![]()
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