The relative risk model pays more attention to the interaction between multiple sources of risk, various stress factors, and multiple ecosystems. The standard methods and models used in regional ecological risk assessment include the relative risk model, the causal analysis method, and the PETAR model. Generally, this type of assessment takes a regional landscape as the study object to quantitatively evaluate the complex ecological effects generated by land-use change.Įcological risk assessment, a field of research that has swiftly expanded and developed within the last decade, is the process of assessing the adverse consequences for the ecosystem when its components are under stress from external factors. Landscape ecological risk assessment can provide potential insight on how to ameliorate the unreasonable use of land resources, by coupling the perspectives of geography and ecology. Unreasonable land-use activities foster a greater degree of ecological risk to the landscape, which inevitably influences the regional scales of land-use patterns. Moreover, unreasonable human activities cause serious damage to considerable portions of ecological land because of the latter’s limited carrying capacity. Quantitative measurements of land-use landscape patterning and land-use change are of paramount significance for better understanding both regional land evolution and ecological security. Land-use and land cover change (LUCC) play an important role in the research domain of land-use science and sustainable development. Interference from human activities places more pressure on natural habitats, directly affecting the structure and function of natural ecosystems, which also causes complex ecological security problems, such as environmental pollution, land degradation, and biodiversity decline. Over the past 20 years, China’s rapid urbanization has caused many complex social and economic problems, such as a population explosion, the expansion of built-up areas, and ecological issues. Moreover, our findings can help provide practical case study information applicable to similar regions with agro-pastoral ecotones. The overall study identified a reasonable research scale for eco-environmental risk assessment and discerned relationships between regional land-use changes through geospatial analysis. At the study period’s end, a trend of slight contraction in the high-risk areas was found, indicating that land-use regulation and land protection policies have had significantly positive impact upon the lands’ ecological value. (3) Human interference, e.g., construction activities and cultivated land occupation, is the leading factor driving the exacerbation of ecological risk and frequent land-use type conversions. (2) The ecological risk index of unutilized land, forest land, and grassland is relatively high for each, and their anti-interference ability is weak, while the ecological risk index of construction land and water area is the lowest. (1) The ecological risk index at the scale of 3 km × 3 km harbors significant spatial correlation. The results revealed three main findings. Furthermore, we focused on land-use change from 1995 to 2015 by applying the dynamic change information survey method and carrying out a transfer track analysis. In this study, we conducted an ecosystem risk assessment in the western part of Jilin Province, China, based on multiscale and multitemporal remote sensing images and land-use data. The agro-pastoral ecotone, an ecological transition zone connecting adjacent areas of agricultural planting area and grassland animal husbandry, has three features: a complex natural condition, relatively pronounced population pressure, and a fragile ecological environment.
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